Tesi etd-06062025-095124
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Tipo di tesi
Dottorato
Autore
NEGRO, BEATRICE
URN
etd-06062025-095124
Titolo
Essays on the Hydrogen Paradigm: Technology, Specialisation, and Policy
Settore scientifico disciplinare
SECS-P/06
Corso di studi
Istituto di Economia - PHD IN ECONOMICS
Relatori
relatore Prof. DOSI, GIOVANNI
Parole chiave
- Ecological Transition
- Hydrogen
- Industrial Policy
- International Specialisation
- Technical Change
Data inizio appello
24/10/2025;
Disponibilità
completa
Riassunto analitico
This thesis studies the raising of the green hydrogen technology within the global energy transition, assessing its potential to contribute to a new techno-economic paradigm. It examines the technological foundations, patterns of international specialisation, resource dependencies and local investments that shape hydrogen production. The analysis investigates how capabilities and resources are globally distributed, exploring how hydrogen interacts with other technologies and resources in the international arena. Trade flows are used as a proxy for technological diffusion, based on the assumption that countries’ market positioning reflects their technological and productive capabilities. The emerging industry is examined within patterns of structural change in energy systems, analysing both its complementarities and its disruptive potential relative to existing fossil-based paradigms. The analysis finds a very limited market development, a growing leadership of Asian economies, and strong interconnections with the fossil energy system. Given the early stage of hydrogen markets, industrial policies play a crucial role in establishing institutional frameworks and setting priorities for technological development and diffusion. Many countries have adopted national hydrogen strategies and committed substantial public funding, yet significant barriers persist, and the future of the sector remains uncertain. Moreover, the incumbent energy industry plays a significant role in shaping hydrogen policy, which tends to prioritize market interests. This raises concerns that public support is being channelled into pathways that reinforce existing structures rather than fostering systemic transformation. Policy frameworks often prioritise investment de-risking to reduce uncertainty and facilitate market rollout. Nonetheless, a spatial assessment of global hydrogen projects reveals a tendency to cluster investments in environmentally fragile areas, highlighting critical issues of environmental justice and territorial inequality. Strong public governance is essential to steer investments toward inclusive development, shared environmental benefits, and long-term sustainability.
Empirically, studying hydrogen industry development is very challenging due to limited data and the sector’s emerging, still-niche status. To overcome these constraints, the thesis develops original datasets by combining diverse data types and sources. It offers rich descriptive evidence to map the evolving hydrogen industry and identify key challenges. A mixed-methods approach—including econometric modelling, machine learning, and spatial analysis—is employed to capture the complexity of the transition.
The thesis addresses important gaps in the literature, especially in the empirical mapping of countries’ positions within technological, trade, and policy dimensions of green hydrogen. When this research began, few studies had examined the hydrogen sector in depth, particularly from an economic and industry perspective, despite a growing interest in the topic across the social sciences.
By integrating insights from economics, innovation studies, institutional reports and political ecology, the thesis conceptualises green hydrogen not only as a technological innovation but also as a potential driver of structural transformation. It highlights the need for inclusive, context-specific policy frameworks capable of supporting hydrogen’s development while avoiding the risks of deepening global inequalities or reinforcing extractive, environmentally harmful dynamics. The discussion also considers broader socio-economic, historical and geopolitical factors influencing hydrogen strategies. It explores how market forces, policy frameworks, and international competition are embedded within national and supranational decarbonisation efforts. Overall, this work offers a comprehensive, interdisciplinary assessment of the hydrogen economy, critically evaluating the potential of green hydrogen to enable a sustainable and equitable energy transition. It advocates for cautious, context-aware policy designs that balance technological opportunities with socio-environmental challenges and governance complexities.
While advancing the understanding of the hydrogen market and policy, the author acknowledges significant gaps—particularly regarding the evolution of the knowledge base, industry dynamics, and key actors—highlighting the need for further research to fully characterize hydrogen’s innovation ecosystem. Further data and analysis would contribute to strengthening the robustness of some of the results achieved through the methodological trade-offs made in the thesis in order to frame the hydrogen transition’s complex and emergent dynamics.
The thesis is structured as follows. The first chapter examines the potential emergence of a green hydrogen paradigm, in contrast to the dominant fossil-based production. The development of technology and countries’ positioning are described. The second chapter is devoted to assessing the potential complementarity with fossil-based product component and the underlying technological drivers of specialisation. The third chapter explores more in depth the policy framework, hydrogen investments, and justice implications, looking at the spatial proximity between environmental conflict areas and hydrogen projects.
Empirically, studying hydrogen industry development is very challenging due to limited data and the sector’s emerging, still-niche status. To overcome these constraints, the thesis develops original datasets by combining diverse data types and sources. It offers rich descriptive evidence to map the evolving hydrogen industry and identify key challenges. A mixed-methods approach—including econometric modelling, machine learning, and spatial analysis—is employed to capture the complexity of the transition.
The thesis addresses important gaps in the literature, especially in the empirical mapping of countries’ positions within technological, trade, and policy dimensions of green hydrogen. When this research began, few studies had examined the hydrogen sector in depth, particularly from an economic and industry perspective, despite a growing interest in the topic across the social sciences.
By integrating insights from economics, innovation studies, institutional reports and political ecology, the thesis conceptualises green hydrogen not only as a technological innovation but also as a potential driver of structural transformation. It highlights the need for inclusive, context-specific policy frameworks capable of supporting hydrogen’s development while avoiding the risks of deepening global inequalities or reinforcing extractive, environmentally harmful dynamics. The discussion also considers broader socio-economic, historical and geopolitical factors influencing hydrogen strategies. It explores how market forces, policy frameworks, and international competition are embedded within national and supranational decarbonisation efforts. Overall, this work offers a comprehensive, interdisciplinary assessment of the hydrogen economy, critically evaluating the potential of green hydrogen to enable a sustainable and equitable energy transition. It advocates for cautious, context-aware policy designs that balance technological opportunities with socio-environmental challenges and governance complexities.
While advancing the understanding of the hydrogen market and policy, the author acknowledges significant gaps—particularly regarding the evolution of the knowledge base, industry dynamics, and key actors—highlighting the need for further research to fully characterize hydrogen’s innovation ecosystem. Further data and analysis would contribute to strengthening the robustness of some of the results achieved through the methodological trade-offs made in the thesis in order to frame the hydrogen transition’s complex and emergent dynamics.
The thesis is structured as follows. The first chapter examines the potential emergence of a green hydrogen paradigm, in contrast to the dominant fossil-based production. The development of technology and countries’ positioning are described. The second chapter is devoted to assessing the potential complementarity with fossil-based product component and the underlying technological drivers of specialisation. The third chapter explores more in depth the policy framework, hydrogen investments, and justice implications, looking at the spatial proximity between environmental conflict areas and hydrogen projects.
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