Tesi etd-10022025-112215
Link copiato negli appunti
Tipo di tesi
Corso Ordinario Secondo Livello
Autore
BACIGALUPI, DAVIDE
Indirizzo email
davidebacigalupi1861@gmail.com
URN
etd-10022025-112215
Titolo
Fiscal Policy and Uncertainty Shocks: an Empirical Analysis using Nonlinear Local Projections.
Struttura
Classe Scienze Sociali
Corso di studi
SCIENZE ECONOMICHE E MANAGERIALI - SCIENZE ECONOMICHE E MANAGERIALI
Commissione
Tutor Prof. NUVOLARI, ALESSANDRO
Relatore Prof. MONETA, ALESSIO
Membro Dott. CORONESE MATTEO
Membro Prof.ssa ANNUNZIATA, ELEONORA
Membro Prof. TURCHETTI, GIUSEPPE
Membro Prof. LAMPERTI, FRANCESCO
Relatore Prof. MONETA, ALESSIO
Membro Dott. CORONESE MATTEO
Membro Prof.ssa ANNUNZIATA, ELEONORA
Membro Prof. TURCHETTI, GIUSEPPE
Membro Prof. LAMPERTI, FRANCESCO
Parole chiave
- fiscal policy
- instrumental variables
- nonlinear Local Projections
- uncertainty
Data inizio appello
28/11/2025;
Disponibilità
completa
Riassunto analitico
In this thesis we investigate the possible presence of nonlinear interaction effects between fiscal policy and macroeconomic uncertainty shocks.
We use a novel nonlinear Local Projection approach (adapted from Cloyne et al. (2023) and Debortoli et al. (2023)) that models the effects of fiscal policy shocks in dependence on the contemporaneous presence of an uncertainty shock (rather than the level, as done in the previous literature).
Applying this methodology on US data, we find that, after an increase in uncertainty, government spending shocks have a weaker effect on GDP, coherently with Bloom (2009)’s theory, while the effect of tax shocks on GDP is stronger. We interpret this apparent puzzle as an indirect confirmation of Ghassibe and Zanetti (2022)’s theoretical framework based on the presence of 'congestion' in the goods market.
We use a novel nonlinear Local Projection approach (adapted from Cloyne et al. (2023) and Debortoli et al. (2023)) that models the effects of fiscal policy shocks in dependence on the contemporaneous presence of an uncertainty shock (rather than the level, as done in the previous literature).
Applying this methodology on US data, we find that, after an increase in uncertainty, government spending shocks have a weaker effect on GDP, coherently with Bloom (2009)’s theory, while the effect of tax shocks on GDP is stronger. We interpret this apparent puzzle as an indirect confirmation of Ghassibe and Zanetti (2022)’s theoretical framework based on the presence of 'congestion' in the goods market.
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