Tesi etd-10272022-123316
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Tipo di tesi
Corso Ordinario Secondo Livello
Autore
TONI, FRANCESCO
URN
etd-10272022-123316
Titolo
Pseudo Rational Agent-Based-Model Expectations
Struttura
Cl. Sc. Sociali - Scienze Economiche
Corso di studi
SCIENZE ECONOMICHE E MANAGERIALI - SCIENZE ECONOMICHE E MANAGERIALI
Commissione
relatore Prof. ROVENTINI, ANDREA
Relatore Prof.ssa Treibich Tania
Relatore Dott. VANDIN, ANDREA
Tutor Prof. BOTTAZZI, GIULIO
Presidente Prof. PICCALUGA, ANDREA MARIO CUORE
Membro Dott.ssa CANTARELLI, PAOLA
Membro Prof. NUVOLARI, ALESSANDRO
Membro Prof. MONETA, ALESSIO
Membro Prof. FAGIOLO, GIORGIO
Membro Prof. MINA, ANDREA
Relatore Prof.ssa Treibich Tania
Relatore Dott. VANDIN, ANDREA
Tutor Prof. BOTTAZZI, GIULIO
Presidente Prof. PICCALUGA, ANDREA MARIO CUORE
Membro Dott.ssa CANTARELLI, PAOLA
Membro Prof. NUVOLARI, ALESSANDRO
Membro Prof. MONETA, ALESSIO
Membro Prof. FAGIOLO, GIORGIO
Membro Prof. MINA, ANDREA
Parole chiave
- agent-based computational economics
- complexity
- heterogeneity
- rational expectations
- recursive learning
Data inizio appello
02/12/2022;
Disponibilità
completa
Riassunto analitico
We enrich the modelling of expectations in agent-based-models by introducing Pseudo Rational ABM Expectations. Analogously to Muth's hypothesis, agents perform forecasting by using the "true model" of the economy. More precisely, the novel expectations are given by a recursive forecasting method, whereby the agents, aware of the feedback loop between expectations and the system dynamics, revise their expectations iteratevely by foreseeing the future state variables at each step.
The new expectations are implemented in the Keynes meeting Schumpeter model and compared with static naïve expectations. We find that the sophisticated expectations imply perfect foresight, boosting the firm-level performance of the adopters. Nevertheless, introducing one forward-looking firm only deteriorates the macroeconomic dynamics, which gets more volatile and unstable.
The new expectations are implemented in the Keynes meeting Schumpeter model and compared with static naïve expectations. We find that the sophisticated expectations imply perfect foresight, boosting the firm-level performance of the adopters. Nevertheless, introducing one forward-looking firm only deteriorates the macroeconomic dynamics, which gets more volatile and unstable.
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