Tesi etd-11142018-182834
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Tipo di tesi
Corsi integrativi di II livello
Autore
GERLI, MICHELE
URN
etd-11142018-182834
Titolo
Beyond the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
Struttura
Cl. Sc. Sociali - Scienze Politiche
Corso di studi
SCIENZE POLITICHE - Laurea Magistrale in Relazioni internazionali (Firenze)
Commissione
Presidente Prof.ssa LORETONI, ANNA
Relatore Prof.ssa GIUSTI, SERENA
Membro Prof.ssa CRISTIANI, ELOISA
Membro Prof. DE GUTTRY, ANDREAS M.T.
Relatore Prof.ssa HENRY, BARBARA
Membro Dott.ssa ALABRESE, MARIAGRAZIA
Membro Dott. SOMMARIO, EMANUELE GIUSEPPE
Presidente Dott. PIRNI, ALBERTO EUGENIO ERMENEGILDO
Relatore Prof.ssa GIUSTI, SERENA
Membro Prof.ssa CRISTIANI, ELOISA
Membro Prof. DE GUTTRY, ANDREAS M.T.
Relatore Prof.ssa HENRY, BARBARA
Membro Dott.ssa ALABRESE, MARIAGRAZIA
Membro Dott. SOMMARIO, EMANUELE GIUSEPPE
Presidente Dott. PIRNI, ALBERTO EUGENIO ERMENEGILDO
Parole chiave
- Donald Trump
- JCPOA
- Key words: Iran
- nuclear ambiguity
- nuclear crisis
- nuclear deal
- sanctions.
- US withdrawal
Data inizio appello
10/12/2018;
Disponibilità
completa
Riassunto analitico
The thesis intends to address the trajectory of the Iranian nuclear crisis from the origins of the nuclear program (1957) to the nuclear deal (2015) and the resulting withdrawal of the United States (2018). Initiated with the key assistance of the West, the program faced a significant development under the Shah. Dismantled after the revolution (1979), the nuclear projects were resumed during the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1988) and enhanced with possible military dimensions during the Rafsanjani and Khatami administrations.
Following the disclosure of two undeclared nuclear sites (2002), the Iranian program and its possible military dimension became a daily source of concern. Fearing the likely escalation of the crisis, the Foreign Minister of France, Great Britain and Germany (EU3) decided to negotiate a deal (2003). Despite some limited success, the Iranian ambiguous attitude and the EU3 unwillingness to make meaningful concessions prevented both parties from settling the crisis. The failure of the European diplomacy paved to way to a formal involvement of the United States, Russia and China, leading to the creation of the P5+1. After Iran’s decision to resume enrichment (2005), the IAEA decided to defer the nuclear issue to the UN Security Council (2006). Given Iran’s reluctance to compromise and to accept the proposals, the UNSC adopted five resolutions against Iran: 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008). Despite the promising openings of President Obama, the controversial elections of June 2009 undermined the US efforts for a direct engagement with Iran. Following the failure of the fuel swap proposal (2009), the negotiations reached a new impasse. Although Brazil and Turkey attempted to negotiate a deal, in 2010 the P5+1 responded with the adoption of resolution 1929, followed by tough unilateral sanctions. After the election of Rouhani, the P5+1 and Iran decided to seriously engage and solve the nuclear crisis (2013). These hard discussions delivered first the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) in 2013, followed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions in 2015 (JCPOA).
The JCPOA attempted to end the trend of nuclear ambiguity by limiting Iran’s program only to peaceful goals and by creating an unprecedented inspection mechanism. Despite wide criticism and the withdrawal of Trump administration in 2018, it will be argued that the nuclear deal is a landmark political framework and a significant diplomatic precedent that should be preserved at all costs.
Following the disclosure of two undeclared nuclear sites (2002), the Iranian program and its possible military dimension became a daily source of concern. Fearing the likely escalation of the crisis, the Foreign Minister of France, Great Britain and Germany (EU3) decided to negotiate a deal (2003). Despite some limited success, the Iranian ambiguous attitude and the EU3 unwillingness to make meaningful concessions prevented both parties from settling the crisis. The failure of the European diplomacy paved to way to a formal involvement of the United States, Russia and China, leading to the creation of the P5+1. After Iran’s decision to resume enrichment (2005), the IAEA decided to defer the nuclear issue to the UN Security Council (2006). Given Iran’s reluctance to compromise and to accept the proposals, the UNSC adopted five resolutions against Iran: 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008). Despite the promising openings of President Obama, the controversial elections of June 2009 undermined the US efforts for a direct engagement with Iran. Following the failure of the fuel swap proposal (2009), the negotiations reached a new impasse. Although Brazil and Turkey attempted to negotiate a deal, in 2010 the P5+1 responded with the adoption of resolution 1929, followed by tough unilateral sanctions. After the election of Rouhani, the P5+1 and Iran decided to seriously engage and solve the nuclear crisis (2013). These hard discussions delivered first the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) in 2013, followed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions in 2015 (JCPOA).
The JCPOA attempted to end the trend of nuclear ambiguity by limiting Iran’s program only to peaceful goals and by creating an unprecedented inspection mechanism. Despite wide criticism and the withdrawal of Trump administration in 2018, it will be argued that the nuclear deal is a landmark political framework and a significant diplomatic precedent that should be preserved at all costs.
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